Metagame Snapshot

>-August 2024->

Written By - Thomas NeilsonSeptember 14, 2024

With 2 Siege Series, and a War Of Attrition into the meta of Guardians' Creed, we finally have a little bit of a better grasp on what decks have proven their power and position, and how the metagame stands after Guardian's Creed. As we head into our first Rally The Realms tournament, we're likely now seeing many of the patterns that will hold true for that tournament. For this Snapshot, I wanted to take a short break from the mini-deck-techs, and rather break down some data from our three post-GCD tournaments! Importantly, with a relatively small sample size, this data isn't necessarily an accurate reflection of exactly how any given deck performs against any other, but rather helps to give a look into what decks are showing solid staying power, and which ones offer plenty of potential.

Guardian's Creed Metagame Matrix

This Matrix compiles the data from the 3 current GCD tournaments, sorted by metagame archetype. Decks with an especially small sample size are sorted to the bottom of the list (Castiel, Sharn, Frost, Dragons, & Prometheus), whilst the rest is currently sorted by overall deck winrate. There are some interesting things to note and break down in this list, so let's get into it!

Breakout Potential

In the current list, Sh'Lara Ramp, Gaia Control, and Angelica Rogues are 3 lists currently sitting towards the top of the dataset. Each of these lists has only seen 1-2 pilots across these past 3 tournaments, but all have found solid placements. Whilst Rogue Tempo is perhaps the most risky out of the 3 of these, both Sh'Lara Ramp and Gaia Control are incredibly potent lists which have shown their chops through these tournament placements.

Of course with a small sample size, it's easy for outlier placements to be overrepresented, but it's at least one way to visualize how decks have placed and performed, and against what decks.

Still, both Sh'Lara and Gaia look to be underplayed lists, and whilst their current win rate will undoubtedly be lowered over a higher sample size, I wouldn't be surprised to see both continuing to drift near the top.

Larger Samples (30+)

From this current dataset, we can see 7 different decks with atleast 30 games worth of data, and although this still represents a relatively small sample size, they do start to show more relevant placements. Let's break down each list and go through some of the results so far, and whether the data seems to be accurately representing the strength of the archetype.

Mortis Grimm Midrange/Mill (65%)

This is one deck I didn't expect to see near the top of this list. With a swath of new hate pieces such as Twilight Magnolia, and Legion based hate pieces such as Topaz Amulet and Radiant Orb Of Divine Light, Grimm Midrange was a deck that I expected to be fighting a much more uphill battle. Evidently however, the list has continued to be a relevant meta competitor, with the ability to crush unprepared players.

Ethelhime Alehouse Storm (62%)

One deck that's been in the "underrated" category for far too long, Ethelhime represents an incredibly potent storm deck with tons of lethal potential. The numbers here are definitely higher than they would likely stand over a larger sample size, but her positioning near the top is unsurprising, and Alehouse is one deck that I imagine will be holding it's top spot with more tournament data.

Mal'ady Garden STax (59%)

Another expected top finisher, Mal'ady Garden Stax has seen a breakout performance so far with a 2nd place and 3rd place finish in 2 of the past 3 tournaments. This data largely just helps to confirm the patterns we've already been seeing and expecting with this deck as a continuous relevant metagame threat.

Whilst the data sample remains small, the data we have so far shows Mal'ady Garden Stax as a powerful deck across the board, and I'd expect it's good results to continue.

Notably, this version of Mal'ady has been performing markedly better than the more putrid focused midrange builds of the archetype.

Angelica Sapphire Storm (53%)

A list with a strong initial performance, and more humbling later results, Sapphire Storm still represents an interesting list in the meta with explosive potential, now more tempered by player knowledge of the deck.

In comparison, Blastforge Aggro is an older list which has reemerged, filling a similar niche to Sapphire Storm. Although it doesn't quite cross the 30 game threshold for this category, it's a list with very similar strengths to Sapphire Storm, which may be better suited to adapt to an increase in focused hate.

For the time being, Sapphire Storm appears to be the more consistent and powerful list, but with more players preparing for aggro, Blastforge Aggro may prove the more resilient archetype.

Michael Sanctify Control (43%)

One victim of smaller sample sizes, Michael Sanctify has risen past Seraphim as the most popular current build. Whilst the data puts this list at a 43% win-rate, I do consider that somewhat deceptive towards the big picture. Michael found 2 placements in the top 8s of both recent siege series, making it a continuous placing list, even if it doesn't have the strongest conversion rate of top-8 to top-4.

Mal'ady Putrid Mill Midrange (41%)

A list relatively similar to the Grimm Midrange lists, being both relatively popular, and reasonably capable at catching unprepared opponents off guard. At the moment however, the midrange version of Putrid seems to be in an awkward spot, lacking some of the strengths of the Mortis Grimm Midrange builds, and the Mal'ady Garden Stax builds.

Alero Fandorian Midrange (39%)

The most surprising result in this data, and another notable victim of the small sample size available, Fandorian Midrange is a list that's seen relevant placements in both recent siege series. With a 2nd and 3rd place finish, the low win-rate here is likely less indicative of the deck's power level, and more representative of the difficulty of the deck. The deck remains a powerful option, with very relevant tools into any matchup, but evidently is highly player dependent for top placement.

Overall, whilst it's fun to have access to competitive data, the small sample size we currently have requires plenty of caveats for actual data analysis. Still, this data does help to show some of the trends in the meta, and solidify the power of some current decklists. As we get more tournament results, this data will be updated in future Monthly Snapshots, so stay tuned!

>-Check out Last Month's Metagame Snapshot Article here!->

Page updated

Google Sites

Report abuse